2027 Business Trends

Part 1 Macroeconomy _ Savor the Forest Before Counting the Trees

A Country Exporting Over $100 Billion a Month

After Germany, China and the United States, Korea became the fourth country in the world to break $100 billion in monthly exports. They rose 70.9% from the same month a year earlier, and the monthly trade surplus came to $36.15 billion. This is the new export record Korea set in June 2026. First-half exports totaled $496.7 billion, raising the odds that total 2026 exports will top $1 trillion. The star was, as ever, semiconductors, with $44.82 billion sold in June alone. Before the first half had even ended, they had already surpassed the full-year 2025 figure. The surge came from price, not volume. As AI data center investment expanded, demand for high-performance memory exploded, and fixed contract prices for DRAM and NAND flash climbed relentlessly throughout the first half. Exports excluding semiconductors also grew 28%, and 18 of the 20 major export items increased. Even in autos, internal-combustion exports fell, but exports of electric and eco-friendly vehicles rose. In other words, the quality of exports has improved.

So, should we raise the growth forecast to 3%?: The IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast for Korea from 1.9% to 2.6%, the highest among the 30 countries it covers. In late June, eight major investment banks put forward an average growth forecast of 3.0%.